Nearly a year ago LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh got together and had a party announcing the arrival of the Miami Heat's dynasty. LeBron spoke of winning not just 1 or 2 championships, but upwards of 7 titles. While LeBron's words were excellent for Heat fans to hear and for the NBA's T.V. ratings, I'm not sure that he thought before he spoke.
No, I'm not talking about how much of the Heat's cap space (whatever the cap will look like with the new CBA) is locked up into three players, I'm not talking about the ongoing circus around the team, I'm not talking about how the organization elected to surround them with guys that they picked up at the local Y. I'm talking about Dwyane Wade, the oldest of the "Big 3" and a guy whom I believe will physically break down before that oh so elusive 8th title.
As we all know Wade is a seemingly fearless, reckless player who gets to the lane at will but gets absolutely abused for it. ( They even made an advertising scheme off of it: Fall Down 7 Get Up 8 .) The way Wade gets to the bucket is very reminiscent of the way that one Allen Iverson played the game. Iverson played (plays) with a certain reckless abandon, however that reckless abandon only saw him play a full 82 games twice in his career.
Dwyane Wade similar to AI has yet to play a full 82 games maxing out at 79 games in 2008-2009. While Wade is larger in stature than Iverson it is somewhat evident that they have similar playing styles in the fact that they are both streaky outside shooters, who attack the basket with a grace and fervor rarely seen in the league. They both go to the line at a solid clip and are uber quick on the offensive and defensive ends of the court.
That said, why not look to the past (Iverson) to predict the future (Wade) at least in terms of physical demise and the breakdown of the body. We'll look into games played and minutes played before Iverson's physical drop off and do the math to see where in Wade's career that will put him. (I deemed Iverson's physical drop off the 2008-2009 season when all of his numbers dropped off the charts, even if it was partially because of the Detroit system.)
Iverson (pre drop)- 12 seasons / 829 Games/ 34, 555.4 Total Minutes
Wade (to date)- 8 Seasons/ 547 Games/ 20,567.2 Total Minutes
Wade (22) came into the league a year older than Iverson (21), so we will assume that being a year older works to his disadvantage. If Wade plays 4 more seasons like his most recent for the Heat (76 games, 37.2 MPG he will add on 11,296 minutes to his total. We can somewhat safely assume Wade will get injured and miss 20 to 25 games more than normal so we'll say he plays 50 games at 37.2 MPG. That adds another 1,862 minutes to his total meaning this is how the numbers stack up at the end of the 2015-2016 season:
Iverson (pre drop)- 12 seasons / 829 Games/ 34, 555.4 Total Minutes
Wade (2015-2016)- 13 seasons/ 901 Games / 33,725.2 Total Minutes
Let's assume Wade loses his step going into that 16-17 season. Will it be worth the Heat resigning Wade's breaking down body? If not the "Big 3" will have won a total of 5 titles, but you'll have to imagine they get beat in at least one 7 game series between now and then. The Heat win 4 titles, maybe. Not quite what LeBron said.
However, Wade has multiple options to avoid the fate of Allen Iverson. Wade at 6'4"has the ability to do things much more Michael Jordan like than Iverson ever had the blessing of doing. Jordan extended his Bulls career by at least two years by doing two things: wanting IT more than anyone, and developing a mid-range/ back to the basket game that was near unstoppable. Dwyane Wade has the talent, the ability to re-invent himself.
The only question left to ask is: Does he have the drive to re-invent himself?
He'll have to if he want's LeBrons predictions to come true.
@gbkcraw
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