After 4 days of buzzer beaters, overtimes, and upsets the field for the second weekend of the "Big Dance" has finally been set. After nearly every bracket has been decimated and the tournament favorite got sent home early the college basketball experts will spend the next four days breaking down each and every match up. Even though I'm far from an expert, I'm going to do my best to break down the eight sweet sixteen match ups.
Midwest: (9) University of Northern Iowa vs. (5) Michigan State- UNI is the Cinderella of not just the Midwest but possibly of the whole tournament after knocking out overall number one Kansas. Northern Iowa might actually be seen as a favorite after MSU lost the 2 time big ten player of the year and heart of their team Kalin Lucas. Ali Forukmanesh is the hero of this tournament so far hitting a game winning shot against UNLV in the first round and hitting a three against Kansas that turned into a dagger. This game could swing either way, if Michigan St. wants to knock off the cinderella they need to hit the offensive glass hard, play pressure D and force turnovers, and of course find Forukmanesh at the end of the game.
(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Ohio St.- After losing All SEC performer Tyler Smith for legal troubles earlier this season Tennessee has clawed their way into the Sweet 16. Ohio St. who has Naismith award contender Evan Turner better not sleep on the Vols though because they have been known to show up at their best for the big games. Although Pearl has never advanced the Vols past the Sweet 16 he had them knocking off two number one teams earlier this year (Kansas and Kentucky) so they can play with anyone. Ohio State has great balance with four players averaging over 12 points per game and that will be tough for the Volunteers to contain. However if the Tennessee can force the issue by putting end to end pressure on turnover he will cough up the ball (9 Turnovers vs. GT), and his back court mate William Buford followed suit by turning it over 5 times himself.
West: (1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler- While at first glance it looks like Butler is completely over-matched you have to look no further than playing Georgetown within 7 points earlier this season after shooting only 31.1% from the field. A big question for this game is will Arinze Onuaku be able to play and if so will he be able to contain the Bulldogs big man Matt Howard, if so the odds of Syracuse winning are great. While Syracuse is much more athletic than this Butler team, if Butler can contain Wes Johnson and have their big three (Howard, Mack, Heyward) play a good game they will find themselves in it throughout. The stars are going to have to align for Butler to beat this talented and athletic Syracuse team, but don't be to surprised if they do. Butler needs to maximize each possesion, slow the pace of the game, and contain Wes Johnson if they want to have any chance of winning this game.
(6) Xavier vs. (2) Kansas State- Look for this game to be a run and gun shoot out with both of these teams averaging around 80 points per game over the course of the year. Kansas State has two of the best guards in the nation in Dennis Clemente and Jacob Pullen who did a great job of containing Jimmer Fredette when they played BYU. Now Kansas States guards will be charged with shutting down Xavier's leading scorer in 6'4" Jordan Crawford. Crawford, the transfer from Indiana, is averaging 20 points per game while shooting 46% from the field and nearly 40% from three point land. Even if the Wildcats can't slow Crawford down, don't count them out because Pullen (19.2 ppg) and Clemente (16.3 ppg) can score with anyone in America. While the guard match up will be intriguing, this game could be decided down low with the winner of the Jamar Samuels and Jason Love match-up coming out on top.
East: (1) Kentucky vs. (12) Cornell- Cornell has absolutely dominated the first two games of this tournament winning both by double digits. While some people might see this as a game that Kentucky will dominate running all over the slower paced Big Red, that is far from the truth. Cornell played Kansas in Lawerence, and hung tough with the then undefeated Jayhawks, losing only by 5. Kentucky is going to look to get out and run on the less athletic Big Red, but look for Cornell to slow the game down and keep it closer than most expect. An interesting matchup in this game will be between Cornell's 7 footer Jeff Foote who is averaging 12 points and 8 rebounds per game, and UK's Freshman DeMarcus Cousins who is putting up 15 points and 10 rebounds a contest. If Foote can be solid down low and possibly outplay Cousins that would be key to keeping Cornell close in this game. If the Big Red can successfuly slow down the pace, take care of the ball, and rebound well maybe, just maybe they can keep their Final 4 hopes alive.
(11) Washington vs. (2) West Virginia- Look for a great game between these two teams because both of them have been playing out of their minds lately. West Virginia has won eight games in a row and Washington has won nine straight, both winning their respective conference tournaments. Washington has two incredible leaders in Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter who can play with anyone in the country. West Virgina has followed the hot hand of Da'Sean Butler who hit two game winning shots in the Big East tournament while carrying them to the championship. West Virginia is going to be a very tough match-up for the Huskies because the Mountaineers have 3 guys averaging over 12 points per game. If the Huskies are going to stay in this game, they will have to step it up on the Defensive end and limit the number of open shots Butler gets, have another double digit performance from Matthew Bryan-Amaning.
South: (1) Duke- (4) Purdue- Coming into this tournament there were experts all around the nation picking Purdue to fall in the first round to Sienna, and Purdue has used that as bulletin board material as they have clawed their way to the Sweet 16. However, Purdue is running into a well oiled Duke machine that could send the Boilermakers home earlier than they want. Purdue had an average offense before losing their best all around player Robbie Hummel, and now their offense will truly be exposed because Duke is the third most efficient Defensive team in the nation. Purdue is going to struggle to put up points this game which means they will have to keep Duke from lighting up the scoreboard which also will be tough. Duke has the second most efficient offense in the nation and it will be quite the feat for the Boilermakers to shut down the tandem of Scheyer, Singler, and Smith who average a combined 53.2 points per game. If Purdue wants to have any chance at making it to the Elite 8 they are going to have to neutralize Brian Zoubek on the offensive boards, because he is playing the best basketball of his career late in this season. The other key for Purdue is getting good penetration and finishing around the basket for their guards, most notably E'Twaun Moore.
(3) Baylor vs. (10) St. Mary's- This is a very scary match-up for Scott Drew's Baylor Bears. St. Mary's is a very well rounded team that can score inside and out. Omar Samhan is dominating this tournament averaging 30.5 points per game, so step one for Baylor's defense is to slow down Samhan, which is doable with Ekpe Udoh who set the Big 12 single season shot blocking record this year. If the Bears 2-3 zone can contain Samhan step two is to keep St. Mary's from getting the open three. Baylor has struggled with good three point shooting teams this year and St. Mary's shoots the fourth highest percentage from three in the nation, if they get hot, and Scott Drew won't bail on the zone it will be a long night for Baylor fans. The Baylor Offense however can keep them in the game with absolutely anyone, LaceDarius Dunn leads the attack averaging 19.4 points per game while Tweety Carter averages 15.1 and Ekpe Udoh adds 13.9 points a contest. For Baylor to win this game, they'll have to be willing to bail on their zone, take care of the basketball, and get Dunn, Carter, and Udoh going offensively.
After the first four days of tournament basketball nobody thinks they are a guarantee to move on. Look for more upsets, overtimes, and hopefully a few buzzer beaters to make this tournament even more incredible.
My Thoughts:
ReplyDeleteI'll start with Baylor. I think they're gonna be prepared. Give them a week to look at the film of Samhan doin work against Richmond and Villanova should give Udoh, Lomers, and the other bigs some fire to go out and render him ineffective. I dont think St. Mary's has the guards to stop Lace and Tweety, and I know they don't have an athlete like Acy to matchup. I like Baylor a lot going forward.
Duke and Purdue is a much more interesting matchup than it should be being how well Purdue has played in the turney.
I'm hesitant to say Kentucky will dominate, cuz i like Cornell, but Kentucky is murdering teams. They've taken no prisoners, and I'm not sure Cornell can slow it enough to prevent them from putting up another 80 spot.
Same with West Virginia, they're playing great right now.
I really hope Xavier beats Kansas State. 1. I hate Jacob Pullen. 2. I like Jordan Crawford. I hope Northern Iowa wins so I don't have to hear ESPN reports on how likely Kalin Lucas is to play every game. Evan Turner needs to step up and will his team to victory versus Tennessee. Syracuse needs to continue to give Wes Johnson the ball until he cools off.